The global raw materials and chemicals market enters 2025 with a mixture of challenges and growth prospects. After the intense price fluctuations that characterised 2021–2022 due to supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, 2024 and 2025 are marked by relative stabilisation, although uncertainty has by no means disappeared.
For the paint and coatings industry, where raw materials account for approximately 40–45% of production costs, these developments are particularly important.
Economic Conditions and the International Environment
The growth of major economies such as China, the United States, and Europe is a key factor shaping demand for chemical raw materials. According to the OECD, global growth is expected to slow to around 2.9% in 2025, with growth in the United States falling to 1.6%.
This means that demand for key materials, such as resins and solvents, is likely to move at a more moderate pace.
At the same time, geopolitical developments add further uncertainty. Anti-dumping investigations in Europe concerning epoxy resins from China, India, South Korea, and Taiwan may affect prices, while tariffs on metals such as aluminium and steel are already having an impact on packaging categories related to paints.
Supply Chain and New Strategies
Following the severe availability problems recorded during the pandemic period, paint and varnish companies have accelerated their supply chain diversification strategies.
The trend towards near-shoring and friend-shoring is strengthening, with the aim of reducing dependence on Asia. In Europe, increased investment is being observed in local production units for acrylic and polyurethane resins, in order to ensure better availability.
Energy and Raw Materials
The evolution of oil and natural gas prices remains a critical factor for the industry. Most resins, solvents, and additives are derived from petroleum-based feedstocks.
The International Energy Agency — IEA — estimates a reduction in global demand by 0.5 million barrels per day and a fall in the Brent price of approximately 8 dollars per barrel compared with previous forecasts.
This may provide some relief in raw material costs. However, dependence on geopolitical factors remains significant.
Demand from End-Use Sectors
Construction continues to be the largest consumer of paints, with building energy upgrades increasing demand for specialised thermal insulation systems and protective coatings.
Despite the slowdown in new construction, renovation and energy efficiency interventions continue to support demand.
The automotive industry is moving towards lighter materials and electrification, increasing the requirements for high-performance coatings with improved adhesion and durability.
Similarly, the growth of e-commerce is strengthening demand for packaging, which translates into a need for new inks and coatings with ecological characteristics.
Sustainability and Regulatory Pressure
Sustainability remains at the centre of industry strategies. The tightening of European legislation, such as Regulation CPR 2024/3110 and restrictions under REACH for substances of very high concern, is pushing paint producers towards safer and more environmentally friendly solutions.
Demand for low-VOC products and waterborne systems is expected to strengthen further, in line with the objectives of the EU Green Deal.
Another important trend is the growing development of innovative materials with a lower carbon footprint, as Environmental Product Declarations — EPDs — are now becoming a prerequisite for public-sector projects in many European countries.
The Future for Paints and Coatings
For the paint and coatings industry, 2025 is emerging as a year of adaptation to a new reality.
Price stabilisation does not mean a return to the past. On the contrary, the need for sustainability strategies, diversification of supply sources, and investment in research and development is becoming more urgent.
Innovation in bio-based resins, nano-additives that improve durability, and pigments with a lower environmental footprint is shaping the new landscape.
The dynamics of the market require continuous monitoring and cooperation with organisations that possess specialised technical knowledge.
The Institute of Coating Technologies will continue to analyse international developments and provide professionals with the tools needed to understand and make use of the new data.
Bibliography
[1] Adhesives & Sealants Industry. (2025). Raw Materials and Chemicals Overview 2025. Available at: https://www.adhesivesmag.com
[2] OECD. (2024). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2024 Issue 2. OECD Publishing, Paris.
[3] International Energy Agency — IEA. (2024). Oil Market Report – December 2024. Paris: IEA.
[4] European Commission. (2024). Regulation — EU — 2024/3110 on Construction Products — CPR. Official Journal of the European Union.
[5] European Chemicals Agency — ECHA. (2024). REACH Regulation and Candidate List of Substances of Very High Concern. Available at: https://echa.europa.eu
[6] CEPE — European Council of the Paint, Printing Ink and Artists’ Colours Industry. (2024). Annual Report 2024. Brussels: CEPE.
[7] World Paint & Coatings Industry Association — WPCIA. (2023). Global Coatings Market Outlook 2023–2028.
[8] Deloitte. (2023). Chemicals 2025: Navigating Disruption and Sustainability. Deloitte Insights.